BURNHAM'S RUSSIA CHALLENGE

Britain's new prime minister promises to stand by Ukraine. That brings another responsibility – dealing sensibly with Russian hostility.

UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham meets Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Portsmouth, 27 July 2026. Source: Number 10, CC BY--NC--ND--4.0

Britain's new prime minister, Andy Burnham, came into office with a wealth of political experience. He held a wide range of ministerial posts in the Tony Blair premiership, and later as part of Labour's shadow cabinet. His career has included roles in home affairs, health, education, culture and sport, and the Treasury.

What Burnham lacks is any experience of foreign policy. This has led to suggestions that he will be far more focused on domestic issues and, perhaps, that foreign affairs will be left to his foreign secretary, Ed Miliband. This might not be a bad thing given that Burnham's predecessor, Keir Starmer, faced considerable domestic criticism for travelling abroad frequently. Detractors jibed that 'Never here Keir' should spend more time in parliament and visiting different parts of the UK. The former human rights lawyer appeared to enjoy the foreign travels a little too much.

Nevertheless Burnham made his first foreign trip this week. On Monday he stepped off a train in Kyiv, his t-shirt zipped up to the neck, to reiterate Britain's support for Ukraine. It was a sound choice of first foreign destination and an uncontroversial one with the British electorate. It is politically safer than visiting the United States right now, where Starmer's first overseas trip as prime minister took him (for a NATO summit), given the mercurial incumbent in the White House.

It does look like Burnham will visit New York next month, for the opening session of the United Nations General Assembly. Whether that includes a meeting with the US president remains to be determined. It may be wise not to push too hard for such a meeting whilst the prime minister is finding his feet in international diplomacy. Volodymyr Zelenskyy's February 2025 slanging match with Donald Trump is a reminder of the potential for humiliation, though I am confident Burnham will be thoroughly briefed and prepared if there is a meeting.

Blueprints and Ukrainian intel

In Kyiv, marking Ukraine's Independence Day, Burnham co-chaired a meeting of the 'coalition of the willing'. As diplomatic gifts go, Burnham was far from empty-handed. He handed over the technical blueprints for British-made components of the Storm Shadow/Scalp long-range missile. The French had already signed an agreement with Ukraine to support local assembly of the joint Franco-British missiles.

Britain has been supplying Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine since 2023. Ukraine now has the technical means to produce its own version, eventually reducing its dependence on foreign support, although it will of course be some time before it goes into local production. The timescale does not appear to have been mentioned by either party but it will not be earlier than next year. The number of missiles that might be manufactured is another unanswered question for now.

In return, Ukraine has passed to Britain what has been described as a 'gold mine' of intelligence on Russian military operations. Vetted UK organisations will have access to years of battlefield data collected by drones and 'AI-enabled sensors' on the frontlines. The UK and Ukraine will, according to the UK government's press release, share expertise 'to accelerate the development of AI tools to shape the battlefield.'. AI models, learning from the data, are reportedly being used for automated targeting in the war. (Read my thoughts on technology, ethics and the future of war here.)

Russia protests, too much?

Unsurprisingly, the Kremlin reacted badly to Burnham's visit. Referring to long-range missile support to Ukraine, it said Britain was 'adding fuel to the fire.' Burnham had his riposte ready: 'Who started the fire?' Charismatic soundbites aside, the threat of a Russian attack against British targets should be taken seriously without being exaggerated; Russia will be seeking to test Burnham's resolve.

On Thursday, the Russian foreign ministry spokesperson threatened: 'The response to Ukrainian strikes using British missiles on Russian territory may become [Russia targeting] British military sites and equipment in Ukraine or beyond its borders.' In other words, direct attacks on British military targets. We are accustomed to the belligerent rhetoric. Much of it is hot air, intended to intimidate and make us sleep uneasily, with nothing coming of such threats. But that should not breed complacency.

Alongside articulated threats of military attacks, there are the actual attacks that go unarticulated. The poisonings and arson attacks that Russia does not own up to. In the first instance it is these that the UK needs to be on guard against: cyberattacks, political interference and provocations. Edward Lucas wrote yesterday that a former Russian deputy defence minister has 'hinted at "semi-military" attacks on British factories making drones for Ukraine.' I interpret that to mean sabotage or cyberattacks.

It also emerged that Russia's ambassador to the UK returned home in July and that a chargé d'affaires presently heads the Embassy. An unnamed source told The Times: 'They are basically saying, "You guys don't matter". Some suggested that this too was part of Russia's ire with Britain's support for Ukraine and that it was downgrading its diplomatic relations. I expect this is not the case. If the step was taken as a way of officially demonstrating discontent, one imagines that Moscow would make a big noise about withdrawing its ambassador. Instead the news trickled out weeks after Andrei Kelin had left his post. It seems more likely that he has left for private reasons (health or retirement) and that the process of appointing a new ambassador is ongoing behind the scenes.

A mystery tour

It's always the way. So much happens behind the scenes and we are left scrambling for explanations. So it was when we learnt that the head of the CIA, John Ratcliffe, visited Moscow unannounced on Tuesday. It was hardly a secret. Social media was awash with screengrabs from flight-tracking sites showing a hulking Boeing C-17A Globemaster III military transport plane, first landing in Latvia, then in Moscow. The purpose of Ratcliffe's trip remained shrouded.

Neither the US nor Russia has said much about the discussions. Those inclined to conspiracy theories note that Putin signed three 'secret decrees' that day. But there is no reason to think Ratcliffe met Putin – an intelligence chief meeting a foreign head of state would be highly unusual – and so the notion that there is a new hidden US-Russia agreement about Ukraine is far-fetched to my mind. The Wall Street Journal claims that the US spy chief warned Russia against attacking NATO, worried by a recent US intelligence 'assessment' (not, note, concrete intelligence of an imminent attack).

Europeans naturally do not like the idea that the Americans and Russians are talking behind their backs. The US, since Trump's return to office, has drawn down support for Ukraine and made concessionary gestures to Russia. The temporary US waiver on Russian oil sanctions, introduced in March, was twice extended. It may have lapsed in June, but the US isn't exactly going full throttle on enforcement. And a Russia-related sanctions bill currently being discussed in Congress has, despite being described as 'a sledgehammer', been watered down.

In early July, the US president agreed that Ukraine should be given the know-how to make its own Patriot interceptor missiles, something it desperately needs to fend off Russian attacks. 'We're going to give you a licence to make Patriots,' Trump told Zelenskyy. Media excitedly spoke of a change of policy from the Trump administration on the war. Alas, it was not long before Trump backtracked. He told reporters a few weeks later that it was 'a hard thing to give away that kind of technology. People you give that technology, you know they can someday turn on you.'

The US and UK are at odds when it comes to missiles for Ukraine. All this makes for an interesting head-to-head if Burnham does meet Trump in the US next month. The potential for UK-US disagreement is abundant.

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