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THREE SHORT PIECES: NATO, RUSSIA, AZERBAIJAN
Donald Trump and the NATO summit, a BRICS day out in Rio, and Russia's falling out with Azerbaijan.

Paul Hansbury
Jul 45 min read
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THE TRUMP DOCTRINE?
In the wake of US strikes on Iran's nuclear programme, Vice President JD Vance gets carried away.

Paul Hansbury
Jun 255 min read
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IRAN: IS THERE A CASE?
Will the US join Israel's attacks on Iran? Probably. Is there a legal case for the strikes? Probably not.

Paul Hansbury
Jun 217 min read
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IRAN AND ISRAEL: THREE POINTS
This could get a lot worse, quickly.

Paul Hansbury
Jun 175 min read
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ASPIRATIONS, CLASHES AND TANGLED WEBS
A round up of a week I missed: Operation Spider's Web, the UK Strategic Defence Review, and US meddling in European affairs.

Paul Hansbury
Jun 107 min read
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TRUMP'S CARDS
Will Trump's personal ambitions clash with the architects of US strategy? Is that strategy founded on good premises?

Paul Hansbury
Mar 811 min read
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PART II: WHAT SHOULD EUROPE DO?
Three millennia ago the Egyptian king Rameses II signed a peace treaty with the Hittite Empire after protracted warfare. The two kings...

Paul Hansbury
Feb 229 min read
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PART I: TRUMP'S SHOWDOWN WITH UKRAINE – AND EUROPE
Donald Trump's war of words with Volodomyr Zelenskyy. Is the US about to cut a deal about Ukraine's future without consulting Ukrainians?

Paul Hansbury
Feb 206 min read
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UKRAINE NEGOTIATIONS: HAS TRUMP REVEALED HIS HAND?
Trump and Putin spoke on the phone. The US president may be carrying on different negotiations from the ones reported. A contrarian's view.

Paul Hansbury
Feb 136 min read
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ASSASSINS AND THE LAW
On the legitimacy of assassinations. Plus a few thoughts on prisoner exchanges amid concerns foreign citizens are seen as targets for arrest

Paul Hansbury
Dec 22, 20245 min read
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UKRAINE: 1,000 DAYS OF WAR
One thousand days of war. The US reportedly agrees to lift restrictions on Ukraine targeting Russia with long-range missiles.

Paul Hansbury
Nov 19, 20244 min read
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RUSSIA AND IRAN: AN ADDENDUM
A postscript to my previous post. Plus a comment on a submission to the International Criminal Court about Belarus and Georgia's election.

Paul Hansbury
Oct 15, 20246 min read
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RUSSIA AND IRAN: A DEVILISH PARTNERSHIP
Four reasons why the Iran-Russia relationship is the partnership western states should fear the most at present.

Paul Hansbury
Oct 6, 20248 min read
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WHAT AREN'T THEY TELLING UKRAINE?
Behind the rhetoric, what does the US really want to see happen to end the war between Russia and Ukraine?

Paul Hansbury
Sep 19, 20245 min read
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BELARUS NOTES #8: TROOPS ON THE UKRAINE BORDER
Interpreting a recent escalation along the Belarus-Ukraine border. Is there anything for Ukraine to worry about?

Paul Hansbury
Sep 3, 20244 min read
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THE KURSK GAMBLE AND OTHER UKRAINE WAR UPDATES
The Ukrainian military operation inside the Russian border, which began on Tuesday, is going quite well. What's going on?

Paul Hansbury
Aug 9, 20244 min read
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BELARUS NOTES #7: MINSK AND SHANGHAI
Belarus is the first European state to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation; Lukashenka's 30 years; and Tsikhanouskaya visits the UK.

Paul Hansbury
Jul 21, 20245 min read
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'ROOT AND BRANCH': DEFENCE REVIEW MUSTN'T GET TANGLED IN THE WEEDS
A few comments on the UK's Strategic Defence Review, which was announced earlier this week.

Paul Hansbury
Jul 18, 20245 min read
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PARSING JUDGEMENT #3: ON NATO AT 75
As NATO marks its 75-year anniversary, this new volume from Sten Rynning is a fitting appraisal of 'the world's most powerful alliance'.

Paul Hansbury
Jul 16, 20248 min read
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FAR FROM PEACE
From Putin's phoney peace offer to his meeting with Kim Jong-Un, there is little cause for optimism. But you can often see what you want.

Paul Hansbury
Jun 21, 20247 min read
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