Who ate all the Minsk pies?

January blues. At the moment the US, not Russia, is the greatest threat to NATO as the row over Greenland heats up. FREE TO READ

The concluding part of this blog looks at law and power politics - and why I think both Trump and the Europeans are wrong.

What are the sources of international law? Does it have any substance and clout in a dog-eat-dog world?

A timely analysis of Russian military thinking. Very much a book that does what it says on the tin.

US-Belarus negotiations and the latest prisoner releases, and what it means for European policy.

The United States' 2025 National Security Strategy and the western hemisphere.

The United States' 2025 National Security Strategy and Europe.

Steve Witkoff. A man with a dubious plan and a Gulfstream jet.

Applying some bargaining theory to negotiations and peace plans.

A quick appraisal of recent political developments in Georgia. And a short postscript on the 28-point plans (now we have two of them).

A few extra thoughts on the dubious peace plan.

On the leaked 28-point 'peace plan' and why it is an insult to Europeans. It's OK to be angry. FREE TO READ

Follow the silences, always.

America considers letting Lukashenka get up off the naughty step. A comment on Belarus-US relations and sanctions.

A belated comment on September's joint Russian-Belarusian military exercise, Zapad-2025.

Why Trump's policy towards US allies in the Asia-Pacific may prove his greatest act of self-harm.

Carlo Masala offers a succinct and engaging future scenario in which NATO responds inadequately to a Russian attack. It is scary because it is highly plausible.

'A big shift' or not? Reading between the lines. THIS POST IS FREE TO READ

Moldovans go to the polls next Sunday, in a parliamentary vote that could introduce greater instability to the country.

What has Donald Trump achieved with his peace-making efforts? He exaggerates 'bigly' but in one, maybe two conflicts I think he deserves some credit.