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BARGAINING IN WARTIME (PART I)
Applying some bargaining theory to negotiations and peace plans.

Paul Hansbury
Nov 28, 20256 min read


PEACE: HASTE MAKES WASTE
A few extra thoughts on the dubious peace plan.

Paul Hansbury
Nov 22, 20254 min read


BELARUS NOTES: MISDIRECTIONS (II)
America considers letting Lukashenka get up off the naughty step. A comment on Belarus-US relations and sanctions.

Paul Hansbury
Oct 23, 20255 min read


TRUMP AND UKRAINE: NOT ALL IT SEEMS?
'A big shift' or not? Reading between the lines.
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Paul Hansbury
Sep 24, 20255 min read


MR ZELENSKYY GOES TO WASHINGTON
Following Vladimir Putin's 'red carpet' treatment in Alaska, it is now Volodomyr Zelenskyy's turn to meet the US president.

Paul Hansbury
Aug 18, 20255 min read


IS TRUMP TURNING ON PUTIN?
Trump still likes Putin, even if the Russian president is making life harder for the White House to maintain its stance on Ukraine.

Paul Hansbury
Jul 19, 20255 min read


GERMANY: STEPPING UP OR STEPPING BACK?
Friedrich Merz is getting himself in a twist over Ukraine's wish for Germany's long-range cruise missiles.

Paul Hansbury
May 28, 20253 min read


IS PEACE IN UKRAINE CLOSE?
Following Trump and Zelenskyy's meeting in St Peter's Basilica, can we expect quick progress on peace talks?

Paul Hansbury
Apr 27, 20254 min read


TRUMP FRUSTRATED?
Donald Trump is 'pissed off' with Vladimir Putin. Is a change of tone coming? Or not?

Paul Hansbury
Apr 2, 20257 min read


TO CEASEFIRE OR NOT TO CEASEFIRE
Ukraine agreed to plans for a 30-day ceasefire. Vladimir Putin demurred. How can we understand Putin's position?

Paul Hansbury
Mar 15, 20255 min read


PART II: WHAT SHOULD EUROPE DO?
Three millennia ago the Egyptian king Rameses II signed a peace treaty with the Hittite Empire after protracted warfare. The two kings inscribed the treaty on a silver plaque. Two versions of the agreement existed thereafter – the Hittite king went away with a text that said the Egyptians had sued for peace, and the Egyptians' copy said the opposite. One might think an event so long ago irrelevant. Donald Trump, however, evidently thinks he is acting in accordance with time h

Paul Hansbury
Feb 22, 20259 min read


PART I: TRUMP'S SHOWDOWN WITH UKRAINE – AND EUROPE
Donald Trump's war of words with Volodomyr Zelenskyy. Is the US about to cut a deal about Ukraine's future without consulting Ukrainians?

Paul Hansbury
Feb 20, 20256 min read


BACK TO THE FUTURE: PUTIN AND TRUMP 2.0
In the past Donald Trump's praise for Putin was often interpreted as fealty. His current rhetoric suggests a different interpretation.

Paul Hansbury
Jan 27, 20256 min read


ASSASSINS AND THE LAW
On the legitimacy of assassinations. Plus a few thoughts on prisoner exchanges amid concerns foreign citizens are seen as targets for arrest

Paul Hansbury
Dec 22, 20245 min read


WOODWARD'S MANY WARS
Veteran journalist Bob Woodward probes the Joe Biden presidency, wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the return of Donald Trump.

Paul Hansbury
Dec 10, 20245 min read


UKRAINE: 1,000 DAYS OF WAR
One thousand days of war. The US reportedly agrees to lift restrictions on Ukraine targeting Russia with long-range missiles.

Paul Hansbury
Nov 19, 20244 min read


ON BETRAYAL AND HOPE: UKRAINE'S FUTURE
Many think a betrayal is coming. Ever the contrarian, I offer three reasons why the US and its allies might not abandon Ukraine under Trump.

Paul Hansbury
Nov 10, 20248 min read


TRUMP TRIUMPHANT
Why it's different this time round.

Paul Hansbury
Nov 6, 20246 min read


WHAT AREN'T THEY TELLING UKRAINE?
Behind the rhetoric, what does the US really want to see happen to end the war between Russia and Ukraine?

Paul Hansbury
Sep 19, 20245 min read


BIDEN AND THE BLAME GAME
I review one of the crop of early reads on the Biden presidency, which we now know will last only one term.

Paul Hansbury
Sep 13, 20248 min read
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