Who ate all the Minsk pies?

January blues. At the moment the US, not Russia, is the greatest threat to NATO as the row over Greenland heats up. FREE TO READ

A timely analysis of Russian military thinking. Very much a book that does what it says on the tin.

The United States' 2025 National Security Strategy and Europe.

Steve Witkoff. A man with a dubious plan and a Gulfstream jet.

Applying some bargaining theory to negotiations and peace plans.

A few extra thoughts on the dubious peace plan.

A belated comment on September's joint Russian-Belarusian military exercise, Zapad-2025.

Moldovans go to the polls next Sunday, in a parliamentary vote that could introduce greater instability to the country.

The US has taken increased interest in Turkmenistan recently. In Russia officials watch on nervously.

Donald Trump and the NATO summit, a BRICS day out in Rio, and Russia's falling out with Azerbaijan.

A round up of a week I missed: Operation Spider's Web, the UK Strategic Defence Review, and US meddling in European affairs.

The erosion of America's soft power under President Donald Trump.

Ukraine agreed to plans for a 30-day ceasefire. Vladimir Putin demurred. How can we understand Putin's position?

Will Trump's personal ambitions clash with the architects of US strategy? Is that strategy founded on good premises?

Donald Trump's war of words with Volodomyr Zelenskyy. Is the US about to cut a deal about Ukraine's future without consulting Ukrainians?

Trump and Putin spoke on the phone. The US president may be carrying on different negotiations from the ones reported. A contrarian's view.

In the past Donald Trump's praise for Putin was often interpreted as fealty. His current rhetoric suggests a different interpretation.

On the legitimacy of assassinations. Plus a few thoughts on prisoner exchanges amid concerns foreign citizens are seen as targets for arrest

The fall of Assad has ramifications for Russia's power projection in the Middle East.

Anne Applebaum's latest book offers a breezy tour of Dictatorland. And it's a chilling read.