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PUTIN'S "NO-VICTORY" PARADE
Tumbling ratings for Vladimir Putin. Rumblings of a coup. Is the end nigh? FREE TO READ

Paul Hansbury
2 days ago5 min read


RUSSIA'S MIXED FORTUNES (PART I)
After 16 years in power, Hungary's Viktor Orban is gone (for now). Is Russian influence in central and eastern Europe on the wane? SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Paul Hansbury
Apr 284 min read


THE COMEDY OF ERRORS
Trump, Iran, Russia, China. Just don't pretend it makes any sense. FREE TO READ

Paul Hansbury
Apr 108 min read


NUMBER THEORY
A peep into the secret world of the numbers stations. SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Paul Hansbury
Mar 185 min read


RUSSIA AND CHINA STAY AWAY?
Russia (and a little China) and the war on Iran. SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Paul Hansbury
Mar 115 min read


A MOST DANGEROUS MAN
January blues. At the moment the US, not Russia, is the greatest threat to NATO as the row over Greenland heats up. FREE TO READ

Paul Hansbury
Jan 208 min read


FIGHTING TALK
A timely analysis of Russian military thinking. Very much a book that does what it says on the tin.

Paul Hansbury
Jan 95 min read


REVISIONIST AMERICA? TRUMP TURNS AGAINST EUROPE
The United States' 2025 National Security Strategy and Europe.

Paul Hansbury
Dec 11, 20256 min read


ONE OF THE PRESIDENT'S MEN (PART II)
Steve Witkoff. A man with a dubious plan and a Gulfstream jet.

Paul Hansbury
Nov 30, 20256 min read


BARGAINING IN WARTIME (PART I)
Applying some bargaining theory to negotiations and peace plans.

Paul Hansbury
Nov 28, 20256 min read


PEACE: HASTE MAKES WASTE
A few extra thoughts on the dubious peace plan.

Paul Hansbury
Nov 22, 20254 min read


BELARUS NOTES: MISDIRECTIONS (I)
A belated comment on September's joint Russian-Belarusian military exercise, Zapad-2025.

Paul Hansbury
Oct 21, 20255 min read


MOLDOVA, AGAIN
Moldovans go to the polls next Sunday, in a parliamentary vote that could introduce greater instability to the country.

Paul Hansbury
Sep 21, 20255 min read


WHAT'S GOING ON WITH TURKMENISTAN?
The US has taken increased interest in Turkmenistan recently. In Russia officials watch on nervously.

Paul Hansbury
Aug 30, 20253 min read


THREE SHORT PIECES: NATO, RUSSIA, AZERBAIJAN
Donald Trump and the NATO summit, a BRICS day out in Rio, and Russia's falling out with Azerbaijan.

Paul Hansbury
Jul 4, 20255 min read


ASPIRATIONS, CLASHES AND TANGLED WEBS
A round up of a week I missed: Operation Spider's Web, the UK Strategic Defence Review, and US meddling in European affairs.

Paul Hansbury
Jun 10, 20257 min read


MAKING IT EASY FOR AMERICA'S RIVALS
The erosion of America's soft power under President Donald Trump.

Paul Hansbury
Apr 29, 20257 min read


TO CEASEFIRE OR NOT TO CEASEFIRE
Ukraine agreed to plans for a 30-day ceasefire. Vladimir Putin demurred. How can we understand Putin's position?

Paul Hansbury
Mar 15, 20255 min read


TRUMP'S CARDS
Will Trump's personal ambitions clash with the architects of US strategy? Is that strategy founded on good premises?

Paul Hansbury
Mar 8, 202511 min read


PART I: TRUMP'S SHOWDOWN WITH UKRAINE – AND EUROPE
Donald Trump's war of words with Volodomyr Zelenskyy. Is the US about to cut a deal about Ukraine's future without consulting Ukrainians?

Paul Hansbury
Feb 20, 20256 min read
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