MIXED SIGNALS FOR TSIKHANOUSKAYA (PART II)

Part I of this blog recognised the risks to Belarusians of voting in the Coordination Council election in May. I suggested, however, that the low turnout could not be attributed to 'the fear factor' alone. This second part considers those political activists who did not contest the election and Ukraine's endorsement of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. Is her political position weakening or strengthening?

More telling, perhaps, is the many opposition leaders who boycotted the Coordination Council vote. Viktar Babaryka and his Razam party decided not to campaign for election. In 2020 Babaryka polled as the most popular oppositional political figure. A Chatham House opinion poll in January 2021 found him considered to be the best prospective leader among Belarusians (35% of respondents named him). This placed him comfortably ahead of the incumbent, Alyaksander Lukashenka (24%), and the main opponent allowed on the ballot paper in August 2020, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya (11%).

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