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PUTIN PUTS TRUMP IN HIS PLACE
Putin asks, Putin gets.

Paul Hansbury
Mar 19, 20254 min read


TO CEASEFIRE OR NOT TO CEASEFIRE
Ukraine agreed to plans for a 30-day ceasefire. Vladimir Putin demurred. How can we understand Putin's position?

Paul Hansbury
Mar 15, 20255 min read


TRUMP'S CARDS
Will Trump's personal ambitions clash with the architects of US strategy? Is that strategy founded on good premises?

Paul Hansbury
Mar 8, 202511 min read


AN AMERICAN DISGRACE
Trying to make sense of the slanging match in the Oval Office yesterday.

Paul Hansbury
Mar 1, 20255 min read


PART II: WHAT SHOULD EUROPE DO?
Three millennia ago the Egyptian king Rameses II signed a peace treaty with the Hittite Empire after protracted warfare. The two kings inscribed the treaty on a silver plaque. Two versions of the agreement existed thereafter – the Hittite king went away with a text that said the Egyptians had sued for peace, and the Egyptians' copy said the opposite. One might think an event so long ago irrelevant. Donald Trump, however, evidently thinks he is acting in accordance with time h

Paul Hansbury
Feb 22, 20259 min read


PART I: TRUMP'S SHOWDOWN WITH UKRAINE – AND EUROPE
Donald Trump's war of words with Volodomyr Zelenskyy. Is the US about to cut a deal about Ukraine's future without consulting Ukrainians?

Paul Hansbury
Feb 20, 20256 min read


UKRAINE NEGOTIATIONS: HAS TRUMP REVEALED HIS HAND?
Trump and Putin spoke on the phone. The US president may be carrying on different negotiations from the ones reported. A contrarian's view.

Paul Hansbury
Feb 13, 20256 min read


BRITAIN AND AMERICA: TROUBLE BREWING?
Trying to make sense of the kind of relationship the UK will have with the US in the next four years.

Paul Hansbury
Feb 2, 202510 min read


BACK TO THE FUTURE: PUTIN AND TRUMP 2.0
In the past Donald Trump's praise for Putin was often interpreted as fealty. His current rhetoric suggests a different interpretation.

Paul Hansbury
Jan 27, 20256 min read


BELARUS NOTES #9: BALLOTS AND BULLETS
Belarus's dictator hopes next weekend's election will allow him to re-legitimise his grasp on power. Little suggests that will happen.

Paul Hansbury
Jan 19, 20256 min read


ASSASSINS AND THE LAW
On the legitimacy of assassinations. Plus a few thoughts on prisoner exchanges amid concerns foreign citizens are seen as targets for arrest

Paul Hansbury
Dec 22, 20245 min read


SYRIA LEAVES RUSSIA IN A QUANDARY
The fall of Assad has ramifications for Russia's power projection in the Middle East.

Paul Hansbury
Dec 12, 20244 min read


WOODWARD'S MANY WARS
Veteran journalist Bob Woodward probes the Joe Biden presidency, wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the return of Donald Trump.

Paul Hansbury
Dec 10, 20245 min read


UKRAINE: 1,000 DAYS OF WAR
One thousand days of war. The US reportedly agrees to lift restrictions on Ukraine targeting Russia with long-range missiles.

Paul Hansbury
Nov 19, 20244 min read


ON BETRAYAL AND HOPE: UKRAINE'S FUTURE
Many think a betrayal is coming. Ever the contrarian, I offer three reasons why the US and its allies might not abandon Ukraine under Trump.

Paul Hansbury
Nov 10, 20248 min read


TRUMP TRIUMPHANT
Why it's different this time round.

Paul Hansbury
Nov 6, 20246 min read


THE DICTATORS' BUSINESS
Anne Applebaum's latest book offers a breezy tour of Dictatorland. And it's a chilling read.

Paul Hansbury
Nov 1, 20246 min read


BALLOT BOX BATTLES: MOLDOVA AND GEORGIA
Moldova's voting threw up some surprises: what can we expect in the presidential run off? Meanwhile, Georgians go to the polls this weekend.

Paul Hansbury
Oct 22, 20245 min read


MOLDOVANS VOTE ON THEIR FUTURE
Moldova has a presidential election and a referendum this weekend. Russia and the EU are each eager to see a different result.

Paul Hansbury
Oct 17, 20245 min read


RUSSIA AND IRAN: AN ADDENDUM
A postscript to my previous post. Plus a comment on a submission to the International Criminal Court about Belarus and Georgia's election.

Paul Hansbury
Oct 15, 20246 min read
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