PUTIN PUTS TRUMP IN HIS PLACE

US President Donald Trump spent a lot of time raising expectations ahead his scheduled 18 March phone call with Russia's Vladimir Putin. In the end it was a damp squib. Despite Trump saying the two-hour call was 'productive', the readouts from the White House and the Kremlin suggested otherwise. Instead Putin pushed in at least three separate ways to neuter Ukraine's military strengths and extricated himself from the zugzwang he was supposedly placed in.

Power play

I ended my previous blog post with the following lines: 'So I am not expecting Russia to hurry to agree to the ceasefire proposed by the US. I expect more haggling over the terms, efforts to gain advantage on the battlefield... Putin may feel obliged to accept something but I cannot see any ceasefire lasting. Less likely still is a negotiated settlement any time soon.'

Those comments have (so far) more or less proved correct. Putin rejected the 30-day full ceasefire on the table and agreed only to stop attacks against Ukraine's energy infrastructure. Putin, who understands the diplomatic peacockery involved in asserting power, clearly has the measure of Trump and indulged in some power play directly before the phone call.

The Russian president, who has form for turning up late to meetings with world leaders, exuded confidence by being late for the US president. It is his way of signalling that he considers himself the more important party. Others wait on him and never the other way round. He wants everyone to know that he has all the good playing cards.

In what one can only presume was an orchestrated display, Putin was at the annual congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs when the call with Trump was due to begin. The union's director, sitting alongside Putin, tapped his watch and suggested that the Russian leader should be on the phone talking to Trump already. Putin smiled insouciantly, flapped a hand, said 'Never mind'.

Three ways of weakening Ukraine's capabilities

According to the Kremlin readout of yesterday's phone call, Putin ordered his military to stop strikes against energy targets 'immediately'. That was the Russian side's main 'concession'. Yet Ukrainian media shared video footage indicating overnight strikes against energy infrastructure in Slovyansk, casting doubt that Putin had ordered an end to strikes. This would not be surprising: only a few weeks ago Russia flatly denied US suggestions that it was targeting Ukraine's energy grid. In any case, there was little positive for Ukrainians to take away from the public information about the US-Russia discussion. Russia has apparently found a few avenues to pursue in the short term for weakening Ukraine.

First, whilst Ukrainian citizens may be relieved if Russia does stop attacks against Ukraine's energy grid, Putin's reason for offering to stop these strikes is apparent: Ukraine has found a vulnerability in Russia's defences. Ukraine's drone attacks on oil depots inside Russia have damaged Putin's reputation and undermined Russian citizens' confidence in their safety. The Russian leader will be glad to stem those attacks and, hence, the push for a mutual end to missile and drone strikes against energy infrastructure looks like a way of neutering one of Ukraine's military strengths.

Other information we have about the Trump-Putin call further shows Russia getting its way. In rejecting the ceasefire proposals, Putin set out his 'key condition': Ukraine's backers must end the sharing of intelligence and supply of military aid before Russia will cease its fire. This, the second avenue Russia is pursuing in negotiations, patently favours Moscow.

Putin is asking Ukraine to cease fire and sit on its hands, whilst Russia is free to rearm and resupply its military freely, presumably with whatever external support it can muster from its allies. I would suggest Putin's additional goal with this demand is to divide NATO. He is putting the onus on Trump to pressure US allies into stopping military supplies to Ukraine as a condition for peace, something he knows European NATO members are reluctant to agree to. Frictions among NATO allies will be seized upon and exploited by the Kremlin as best it can. (The Trump administration also announced yesterday that it is ending its support for international legal initiatives investigating war crimes in Ukraine. That will dismay US allies.)

The Kremlin readout of yesterday's call also notes that Putin 'responded favourably' to proposals regarding safety of navigation in the Black Sea. Since drone attacks against Russia's naval fleet have been another of Ukraine's major successes during the war, a ceasefire at sea would primarily benefit Russia. This is the third way Russia appears to have sought to weaken Ukraine's military capabilities through negotiations with Trump's administration.

Even former British prime minister Boris Johnson, who has been a staunch defender of Trump's approach (which requires some mental contortions, given his past backing for Ukraine) admitted that Putin had played Trump and was 'laughing at us'.

To cap it off, Putin appealed to Trump's showmanship with proposals for an ice hockey match between American and Russian professional players. Putin knows that Trump, desperately wanting to draw down all US support for Ukraine, is pliant to Russia's demands. A sports event is the kind of distraction Trump will relish.

*****

Ukraine's president, Volodomyr Zelenskyy, had an hour-long call with Trump today (19 March). Both sides said the call went well. This was their first discussion since the bust up in the Oval Office and the two sides are naturally guarded in their comments. Yet events since Trump's return to office have surely chastened Zelenskyy's resolve.

And the same events have toughened Putin's resolve. In his early morning video address to Russians on 24 February 2022, announcing the invasion of Ukraine, Putin explained his goals: 'we will seek the demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine.' Seeking the 'demilitarisation' of a country with 40 million people seemed absurd. Putin probably feels closer than ever to realising it.

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