As happens from time to time, I find myself with a backlog of news stories I would like to write blog posts about. A big story was last week's prisoner exchange between Russia and the West, and I intend to write (belatedly) about that separately.
I could also write about Ukraine's involvement in Africa, following news it helped Tuareg rebels attack Russian mercenaries, but I'll let that one alone for now as well. The more important way in which Ukraine is fighting Russia beyond its own borders presently is through its ongoing incursion into Russia itself, which I discuss below. The sending of troops into Russia is a risky operation, but one that could pay dividends in terms of the damage it does to Vladimir Putin both domestically and internationally.
Ukraine gets its hands on some F–16s
Let me begin, however, with President Volodomyr Zelenskyy's statement that Ukraine had taken delivery of an unspecified number of F–16 jets. Ukraine has been asking for the fighter jets for some time. As well as providing air support to Ukraine's ground forces, the F–16s will mean Ukraine can better counter Russia's ability to carry out bombing missions from the air.
But the number of aircraft delivered is almost certainly very small and insufficient to make a significant difference. There were also admissions that Ukraine did not have enough trained pilots to fly them. So this doesn't sound like a gamechanger to me. Instead it will allow Russia's propaganda machine to accuse the West of escalating the conflict by supplying a new piece of kit to Ukraine. Although the Kremlin's blame machine has quickly had cause to focus accusations of escalation elsewhere...
The Ukrainian forces' incursion into Russia: The Kursk gamble
There is no denying that it has been a tough year for Ukraine's armed forces so far. At the same time, over the course of this year, Ukrainian forces have had several successes. They have been very successful at striking oil depots inside Russia. They have been remarkably successful against Russia's Black Sea Fleet, sinking many vessels and forcing the rest to retreat from the Crimean Peninsula. Ukrainian saboteurs have had notable successes in Crimea more generally.
Thus, although Russia has incrementally pushed back the frontline in eastern Ukraine since the failure of last year's Ukrainian counteroffensive plans, Russia has been kept on its toes. It has been prevented from committing certain resources to the frontlines as it might want. Ukraine has also been trying to take the fight to Russia away from Ukraine itself.
In this context, the Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region of Russia this week gains relevance. Russian officials acknowledged that about one thousand Ukrainian soldiers, supported with tanks and armoured vehicles, crossed into Russian territory at dawn on Tuesday. This was the regular Ukrainian army, not dissident Russian militia fighting alongside Ukraine as has happened in the past. The general view at first seemed to be that it was a tactic for distracting Russia and forcing it to divert resources away from the frontline; that explanation has limits, mind, in light of Russia's obvious manpower and materiel advantages.
Briefed on the situation in front of a press camera, Vladimir Putin looked pissed off. Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the general staff (who is somehow still in his job despite what I intimated might happen in a previous blog post), claimed the attack had been fended off but it clearly hadn't. Instead Ukrainian forces had advanced several miles into Russia.
The main thing to observe is how successful this incursion has been. As I write this, the fighting has entered its fourth day and reports suggest Ukraine has mounted drone attacks 200 miles inside Russia overnight, as well, reportedly taking out stockpiles of Russian missiles. Furthermore it appears that Ukraine has sent additional military units in to reinforce its operation, which suggests it might try to hold on to the villages it has taken control of.
Almost certainly Russia will soon restore its control over the territory but there is reputational damage both domestically and internationally for Russia. I expect that damage is why Ukraine's military planners decided that committing their own troops to a theatre away from the frontline was a gamble worth trying, rather than any expectation that it will actually weaken Russian forces at the front itself.
The dividends
Internationally it helps rebuild the belief that Ukraine can prevail at a time when there has been sustained period of uncertainty about the future of western support. Ukraine has demonstrated what its soldiers can do with good planning and the element of surprise on their side and, while many western politicians will be nervous about cross–border attacks, it will boost the Ukrainian case that it can triumph over Russia with greater support. It remains the case that nothing is decided about the outcome of the war and that Ukraine continues to exploit Russian vulnerabilities effectively.
Domestically, as with last summer's aborted mutiny, as with the earlier drone attack on the Kremlin, so the latest attacks expose how vulnerable Russia is. That will dent morale, and Putin's reputation, among the Russian public. So Putin probably is pissed off.
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