STRAWS IN THE ESTONIAN WIND
- Paul Hansbury
- 1 day ago
- 5 min read
On 19 September, three Russian fighter jets encroached upon Estonian airspace. The MiG-31s' violation of the NATO frontier lasted twelve minutes. Russia's protestations aside, there is little reason to doubt that the incursion took place and was a deliberate manoeuvre. Russia has long been probing NATO's airspace, looking for weaknesses and testing reactions, and recently the frequency and daring of such incursions has increased.
Fortunately cool heads usually prevail in NATO member states and rash responses have been avoided. At the same time, however, not responding firmly is risky. There is ample evidence of an emboldened Russia. About twenty drones crossed into Poland last month and reportedly travelled up to 250km across the border. Russian jets have buzzed NATO airspace throughout this year. Two days after the encroachment on Estonian airspace, NATO scrambled Eurofighter jets to shadow a Russian reconnaissance plane which had not filed a flight plan. It is hard for me to think that Russia would have dared to fly in Estonian airspace for so long at the beginning of the war.
Many in Russia think that Vladimir Putin has 'lifted the country from its knees' and restored at least some of its cold-war era status. Putin's popularity surged in 2014 after the annexation of Crimea and the support for the 2022 invasion was real. Although many Russians today are tired of, or indifferent to, the 'special military operation' in Ukraine, many would nonetheless likely support any future efforts to reclaim former Soviet-controlled territories. Three quarters of Russians polled by the Levada Centre in April 2025 said that they approve of the actions of the Russian military in Ukraine despite a majority also supporting peace negotiations.
