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BELARUS NOTES #12: U.S. DIPLOMACY
A US delegation went to Minsk. It gave Lukashenka a photo opportunity, the US something to crow about, and caused a headache for everyone else.

Paul Hansbury
Jul 10, 20258 min read


THE TRUMP DOCTRINE?
In the wake of US strikes on Iran's nuclear programme, Vice President JD Vance gets carried away.

Paul Hansbury
Jun 25, 20255 min read


IRAN: IS THERE A CASE?
Will the US join Israel's attacks on Iran? Probably. Is there a legal case for the strikes? Probably not.

Paul Hansbury
Jun 21, 20257 min read


IRAN AND ISRAEL: THREE POINTS
This could get a lot worse, quickly.

Paul Hansbury
Jun 17, 20255 min read


MAKING IT EASY FOR AMERICA'S RIVALS
The erosion of America's soft power under President Donald Trump.

Paul Hansbury
Apr 29, 20257 min read


IS PEACE IN UKRAINE CLOSE?
Following Trump and Zelenskyy's meeting in St Peter's Basilica, can we expect quick progress on peace talks?

Paul Hansbury
Apr 27, 20254 min read


TARIFF MAN
America hits the self-destruct button. Is there a fail-safe?

Paul Hansbury
Apr 10, 20258 min read


THE FACTUALITY WILL SET YOU FREE
Yale historian Timothy Snyder seeks to 'rescue' the word 'freedom' from its 'overuse and abuse' in the US.

Paul Hansbury
Apr 1, 20254 min read


TO CEASEFIRE OR NOT TO CEASEFIRE
Ukraine agreed to plans for a 30-day ceasefire. Vladimir Putin demurred. How can we understand Putin's position?

Paul Hansbury
Mar 15, 20255 min read


TRUMP'S CARDS
Will Trump's personal ambitions clash with the architects of US strategy? Is that strategy founded on good premises?

Paul Hansbury
Mar 8, 202511 min read


AN AMERICAN DISGRACE
Trying to make sense of the slanging match in the Oval Office yesterday.

Paul Hansbury
Mar 1, 20255 min read


PART I: TRUMP'S SHOWDOWN WITH UKRAINE – AND EUROPE
Donald Trump's war of words with Volodomyr Zelenskyy. Is the US about to cut a deal about Ukraine's future without consulting Ukrainians?

Paul Hansbury
Feb 20, 20256 min read


UKRAINE NEGOTIATIONS: HAS TRUMP REVEALED HIS HAND?
Trump and Putin spoke on the phone. The US president may be carrying on different negotiations from the ones reported. A contrarian's view.

Paul Hansbury
Feb 13, 20256 min read


BRITAIN AND AMERICA: TROUBLE BREWING?
Trying to make sense of the kind of relationship the UK will have with the US in the next four years.

Paul Hansbury
Feb 2, 202510 min read


BACK TO THE FUTURE: PUTIN AND TRUMP 2.0
In the past Donald Trump's praise for Putin was often interpreted as fealty. His current rhetoric suggests a different interpretation.

Paul Hansbury
Jan 27, 20256 min read


UKRAINE: 1,000 DAYS OF WAR
One thousand days of war. The US reportedly agrees to lift restrictions on Ukraine targeting Russia with long-range missiles.

Paul Hansbury
Nov 19, 20244 min read


ON BETRAYAL AND HOPE: UKRAINE'S FUTURE
Many think a betrayal is coming. Ever the contrarian, I offer three reasons why the US and its allies might not abandon Ukraine under Trump.

Paul Hansbury
Nov 10, 20248 min read


TRUMP TRIUMPHANT
Why it's different this time round.

Paul Hansbury
Nov 6, 20246 min read


RUSSIA AND IRAN: A DEVILISH PARTNERSHIP
Four reasons why the Iran-Russia relationship is the partnership western states should fear the most at present.

Paul Hansbury
Oct 6, 20248 min read


AMERICA AND CHINA: TWO WAYS FORWARD
Beneath the veneer of bipartisan consensus in the US, the Democrats and Republicans have different positions on China.

Paul Hansbury
Sep 23, 20246 min read
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