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TO CEASEFIRE OR NOT TO CEASEFIRE
Ukraine agreed to plans for a 30-day ceasefire. Vladimir Putin demurred. How can we understand Putin's position?

Paul Hansbury
Mar 15, 20255 min read


TRUMP'S CARDS
Will Trump's personal ambitions clash with the architects of US strategy? Is that strategy founded on good premises?

Paul Hansbury
Mar 8, 202511 min read


AN AMERICAN DISGRACE
Trying to make sense of the slanging match in the Oval Office yesterday.

Paul Hansbury
Mar 1, 20255 min read


PART I: TRUMP'S SHOWDOWN WITH UKRAINE – AND EUROPE
Donald Trump's war of words with Volodomyr Zelenskyy. Is the US about to cut a deal about Ukraine's future without consulting Ukrainians?

Paul Hansbury
Feb 20, 20256 min read


UKRAINE NEGOTIATIONS: HAS TRUMP REVEALED HIS HAND?
Trump and Putin spoke on the phone. The US president may be carrying on different negotiations from the ones reported. A contrarian's view.

Paul Hansbury
Feb 13, 20256 min read


BRITAIN AND AMERICA: TROUBLE BREWING?
Trying to make sense of the kind of relationship the UK will have with the US in the next four years.

Paul Hansbury
Feb 2, 202510 min read


BACK TO THE FUTURE: PUTIN AND TRUMP 2.0
In the past Donald Trump's praise for Putin was often interpreted as fealty. His current rhetoric suggests a different interpretation.

Paul Hansbury
Jan 27, 20256 min read


UKRAINE: 1,000 DAYS OF WAR
One thousand days of war. The US reportedly agrees to lift restrictions on Ukraine targeting Russia with long-range missiles.

Paul Hansbury
Nov 19, 20244 min read


ON BETRAYAL AND HOPE: UKRAINE'S FUTURE
Many think a betrayal is coming. Ever the contrarian, I offer three reasons why the US and its allies might not abandon Ukraine under Trump.

Paul Hansbury
Nov 10, 20248 min read


TRUMP TRIUMPHANT
Why it's different this time round.

Paul Hansbury
Nov 6, 20246 min read


RUSSIA AND IRAN: A DEVILISH PARTNERSHIP
Four reasons why the Iran-Russia relationship is the partnership western states should fear the most at present.

Paul Hansbury
Oct 6, 20248 min read


AMERICA AND CHINA: TWO WAYS FORWARD
Beneath the veneer of bipartisan consensus in the US, the Democrats and Republicans have different positions on China.

Paul Hansbury
Sep 23, 20246 min read


WHAT AREN'T THEY TELLING UKRAINE?
Behind the rhetoric, what does the US really want to see happen to end the war between Russia and Ukraine?

Paul Hansbury
Sep 19, 20245 min read


BIDEN'S FOREIGN POLICY LEGACY
Ahead of tonight's debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, a quick assessment of the Biden administration's foreign policy record.

Paul Hansbury
Sep 10, 20246 min read


SPACE RACE 2.0
Great power competition in space. The militarisation of space should concern us all, as we rely on satellites in so much of our daily lives.

Paul Hansbury
Aug 8, 20245 min read


THE SINO–SOVIET SPIRIT
A few notes on the Washington–Beijing–Moscow strategic triangle of today.

Paul Hansbury
May 1, 20247 min read


WHOSE MAN IN HAVANA?
A new investigation pins a series of mysterious 'attacks' against US diplomatic staff on Russia's military intelligence. A few comments.

Paul Hansbury
Apr 11, 20245 min read


THE IDIOTS (I): A NOTE ON TRUMP AND CARLSON
Donald Trump is wrong to assert America's NATO allies 'free-ride'; his rhetoric damages the alliance more than inadequate spending.

Paul Hansbury
Feb 14, 20245 min read


PARSING JUDGEMENT #2: RIGHTS AND WRONGS IN RUSSIA POLICY
Thomas Graham's new book on the United States' Russia policy will rile many readers, but it's a well-informed appraisal. Here's my review.

Paul Hansbury
Jan 3, 20245 min read
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