Can you smell it? The whiff of betrayal in the skies over Ukraine? The assertions that Europe must take responsibility for the continent's security in the wake of Donald Trump's election evaporated as soon as they began. There was barely a rally from Europe. Instead Germany lapsed into disarray as Olaf Scholz's ruling coalition fell apart the day after Trump claimed victory, ensuring that Germany's politics will be turned inwards for the weeks ahead. In France, Emmanuel Macron may talk up European defence but his decision to call an election earlier this year left him greatly weakened. From Europe, at present, a great silence on what to do about Ukraine.
Where does that leave the Ukrainians? There is a widespread expectation that western military support will be drawn down. Max Hastings, in The Times, writes, 'Though nobody would say so, even behind the arras, [European governments] see one big reason to welcome [Trump] into the White House. He will get them off the hook in Ukraine and take most of the blame for its betrayal.' So popular is this view, in fact, that The Times managed to carry opinion pieces mentioning it on three occasions this week: Iain Martin's column on Thursday, Hastings yesterday, and Matthew Syed today. The tacit implication is that Russia will largely get to dictate the terms of any settlement. All three commentators express the hope that they are wrong.
In this post, I will point to three reasons why the widespread belief of the west selling out to Russia over Ukraine may not come to pass. I cannot pretend any certainty in the matter, but I do think that some important details are being overlooked.