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Writer's picturePaul Hansbury

AMERICA AND CHINA: TWO WAYS FORWARD

On the surface, there is a bipartisan consensus in the US on China policy. Both Democrats and Republicans agree that China is America's main geopolitical rival. Trade and political relations have been tense over recent years as the two countries jostle for advantage in the competition. Many people see Joe Biden's policy on China as a continuation of the one pursued by Donald Trump during his presidency, only with less noise.


That view doesn't seem too far off. Biden has, in my opinion, restored some predictability to the US–China relationship. I would consider this a good thing. While there has been a suggestion that Biden has shifted the US position on Taiwan, any shift is minor and he did move to reaffirm the longstanding US position earlier this year. He clearly wanted to convince China that nothing had changed. Similarly, Biden left in place many of the import tariffs that the Trump administration had imposed on Chinese goods – another example of continuity prevailing over change.


With bipartisan consensus, November's election is therefore unlikely to bring any immediate change in China policy. At least, that is the dominant perspective. But two divergent positions on China find embodiment in the two parties' presidential campaigns. The outcome of November's election in the US could therefore set bilateral relations on one of two starkly different paths, with longer term implications for the global order.


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