N.B. Since writing this text yesterday, I note reports that Russia is close to a deal with the new Syrian leadership to keep its military presence in the country. Since the text is written, and the situation is far from certain, I have decided still to publish this post.
In the 1810s the explorer Lady Hester Stanhope, who had been staying in Damascus, set off with a caravan of camels for Palmyra. It was a risky journey but her boldness paid dividends and the locals bestowed on her the title Queen of the Desert. It did not work out so well in the long run for Lady Stanhope, who ran up heavy debts to Syrian lenders and lived her final years as a recluse.
Vladimir Putin's fortunes in Syria risk a similar fate. When Russia boldly intervened in Syria's civil war in 2015, Putin looked decisive where the US and its allies had floundered. The Russian leader saw an opportunity to assert Russia's relevance and power – and to embarrass the west. His involvement in Syria may now be coming back to haunt him. As important, it weakens Russia's ability to project power in the Middle East.