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OUTLOOK FOR THE WAR IN UKRAINE IN 2024
Vladimir Putin appears confident the war in Ukraine is turning in his favour: he could yet be hoisted with his own petard, however.

Paul Hansbury
Dec 21, 20235 min read


THE RUSSIANS ARE EYELESS IN GAZA TOO
I've heard some pretty off-the-wall claims over the past week. The authors of this article think the fact that Hamas attacked Israelis on...

Paul Hansbury
Oct 16, 20234 min read


NOTEBOOK (SEPTEMBER – PART I)
One of the biggest challenges since I started this blog is that there is so much going on in, or otherwise affecting, eastern Europe and...

Paul Hansbury
Sep 23, 20234 min read


QUICK NOTES ON THE PUTIN—KIM SUMMIT
With his collar suit and Mao-styled haircut, Kim Yong-Un conjures an image of China... Frankly, I think the summit's significance is slight.

Paul Hansbury
Sep 13, 20235 min read


PRIGOZHIN’S DEATH: THE BELARUS ANGLE
After Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mercenaries marched on Moscow in late June, and then dramatically backed down, one thing was clear – there was...

Paul Hansbury
Aug 24, 20235 min read


TALES OF UNREST: WHY RUSSIA MIGHT PLUNGE INTO NIGER
A few days ago, I wrote that Russia was unlikely to involve itself in the Niger situation, despite Yevgeny Prigozhin’s comments...

Paul Hansbury
Aug 8, 20235 min read


REASONS TO CHANGE TACK #3: NUCLEAR WEAPONS
I am not usually one to throw caution to the wind, but I am rethinking my position on the rhetoric round nuclear weapons.

Paul Hansbury
Jul 25, 202310 min read


NATO, BELARUS AND THE RUSSIAN NUKES
When NATO meets in Vilnius for its annual summit next week, Ukraine will rightly dominate the agenda. The lack of consensus within NATO abou

Paul Hansbury
Jul 10, 20237 min read


LUKASHENKA AND THE PRIGOZHIN MUTINY
One man unexpectedly came out of last month’s spectacle rather well: Belarus’s dictator, Alyaksandr Lukashenka. What was his role, really?

Paul Hansbury
Jul 10, 202310 min read


PRIGOZHIN VS. PUTIN: A STORY OF RUSSIAN RAGE
He feels that he can say anything he likes without consequence. He gets away with airing in public his feud with the Russian military....

Paul Hansbury
Jun 24, 20237 min read


AN INCONVENIENT TRIANGLE? RUSSIA, CHINA AND SUDAN
The conflict in Sudan has drawn some – but insufficient – attention back to Russia’s role on the African continent. That role, greatly...

Paul Hansbury
May 10, 20236 min read


QUICK NOTES ON THE DRONE ATTACK
I am a bit slow to write, as usual. Yesterday’s news itself was quite remarkable. The BBC headline online blasted: RUSSIA ACCUSES UKRAINE...

Paul Hansbury
May 4, 20234 min read


AND NOW IT’S VIRTUAL INSANITY
This blog post is about the sentencing of Vladimir Kara-Murza, and about political prisoners in Russia and Belarus. It is also about...

Paul Hansbury
Apr 19, 20235 min read
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