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NATO, BELARUS AND THE RUSSIAN NUKES
When NATO meets in Vilnius for its annual summit next week, Ukraine will rightly dominate the agenda. The lack of consensus within NATO abou

Paul Hansbury
Jul 10, 20237 min read


LUKASHENKA AND THE PRIGOZHIN MUTINY
One man unexpectedly came out of last month’s spectacle rather well: Belarus’s dictator, Alyaksandr Lukashenka. What was his role, really?

Paul Hansbury
Jul 10, 202310 min read


PRIGOZHIN VS. PUTIN: A STORY OF RUSSIAN RAGE
He feels that he can say anything he likes without consequence. He gets away with airing in public his feud with the Russian military....

Paul Hansbury
Jun 24, 20237 min read


AWKWARD INTELLIGENCE
In the context of the war in Ukraine, I’ve found myself thinking frequently about the relationship between the intelligence community and...

Paul Hansbury
Jun 13, 20236 min read


ON UKRAINE'S COUNTER-OFFENSIVE
The Chaplain struggles to distinguish between illusion and reality. I can’t remember the context of the following quote from Catch-22...

Paul Hansbury
Jun 6, 20238 min read


BELARUS NOTES #3: SUCCESSION
Speculation surrounded Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s recent disappearance from public. After a six-day absence, he reappeared scrubbed and...

Paul Hansbury
May 30, 20236 min read


WILL SOUTH AFRICA ARREST PUTIN?
The war in Ukraine has thrown a spotlight onto South Africa’s relationship with Russia. Although South Africa publicly proclaims itself...

Paul Hansbury
May 22, 20236 min read


BELARUS NOTES #2: LUKASHENKA'S HEALTH
I’m resisting a click-bait worthy title. BNE Intellinews has gone with the bold: ‘Is Lukashenko Dead?’ Like most people commenting on...

Paul Hansbury
May 15, 20233 min read


REASONS TO CHANGE TACK #2: CRIMEA
We have been hearing about Ukraine’s spring counter-offensive since what seems like time out of mind. As spring arrived, reports claimed...

Paul Hansbury
May 12, 20236 min read


AN INCONVENIENT TRIANGLE? RUSSIA, CHINA AND SUDAN
The conflict in Sudan has drawn some – but insufficient – attention back to Russia’s role on the African continent. That role, greatly...

Paul Hansbury
May 10, 20236 min read


QUICK NOTES ON THE DRONE ATTACK
I am a bit slow to write, as usual. Yesterday’s news itself was quite remarkable. The BBC headline online blasted: RUSSIA ACCUSES UKRAINE...

Paul Hansbury
May 4, 20234 min read


AND NOW IT’S VIRTUAL INSANITY
This blog post is about the sentencing of Vladimir Kara-Murza, and about political prisoners in Russia and Belarus. It is also about...

Paul Hansbury
Apr 19, 20235 min read


REASONS TO STICK TO YOUR GUNS #2: MACRON'S FAUX PAS
I have some sympathy for Emmanuel Macron. He no doubt saw an opportunity in his state visit to China earlier this month, an opportunity...

Paul Hansbury
Apr 16, 20235 min read


WHO LEAKED THE SECRET INTELLIGENCE DOCUMENTS?
Not Hansel, not Gretel. One of the big stories of the past week has been the leak of classified US intelligence papers. These are clearly...

Paul Hansbury
Apr 13, 20237 min read


REASONS TO CHANGE TACK #1: CHINA AND MICROCHIPS
One of my goals in keeping this blog is to track my thought processes and I particularly want to keep notes on any event or information...

Paul Hansbury
Apr 4, 20235 min read


BELARUS NOTES #1: NUKES
Last weekend Vladimir Putin announced that Russia will move tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) to Belarusian territory. Meanwhile,...

Paul Hansbury
Mar 31, 20236 min read


MEDVEDEV'S RAGE AGAINST THE WEST
The rage of Dmitry Medvedev has been noticeable. Russia’s former president was once seen as a mild-mannered politician and the vanguard...

Paul Hansbury
Mar 27, 20234 min read


QUICK NOTES ON CHINA, RUSSIA AND WAR
The war did not stop through the winter months, but it slowed, and news seemed to slow too. Now there seems to be a flurry of...

Paul Hansbury
Mar 21, 20235 min read


A FEW REMARKS ON THE BLACK SEA INCIDENT
The United States and Russia have given conflicting narratives of what happened yesterday in the Black Sea. No doubt more information...

Paul Hansbury
Mar 15, 20234 min read


REASONS TO STICK TO YOUR GUNS #1
US intelligence agencies, according to the New York Times, now think that a ‘pro-Ukrainian group’ sabotaged the Nord Stream gas pipelines...

Paul Hansbury
Mar 8, 20233 min read
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